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Payoff Reads

Find out how each change affected sales and profit at every store.

Your current reports show what each store sold overall. A read isolates the sales contribution of specific changes, like your loyalty program, a deal, a food program, new items, staffing or a remodel, measured at each store vs. a twin built from your own stores that didn't make that same change.

Loyalty programs

Is our loyalty program paying for itself, or subsidizing likely buyers?

What the program actually adds to the bottom line after its discounts, store by store and offer by offer.

Deals and promotions

Did the deal make money, or just move units?

At which stores each deal made money, and at which it lost money, after the discount.

Foodservice

Is our food program winning repeat visits and bigger baskets, or just adding cost?

What the food program contributes at every store after food costs, waste and labor, and whether it builds repeat visits and bigger baskets.

Assortment and private label

Did our private label lift margin, and did new items grow the basket or just cannibalize existing items?

What your private label adds to category margin, and whether new and local items grow the basket or only cannibalize the items already on the shelf.

Self-checkout

Did self-checkout pay for itself, and where would it pay to add more self-checkout units?

Labor, rush-hour sales, basket size and shrink, read together at every store that installed it, to give you a complete view of self-checkout's contribution.

Staffing and labor

Did the extra staff and the pay raise earn back their cost through more sales at peak hours?

What added staff and pay changes earn back at every store: in sales at peak hours, in customers who come back more often, and in fewer employees quitting and less overtime.

Cameras and loss prevention

Did cameras change customer and employee behavior?

To what extent camera presence drove fewer incidents, vs. similar stores without cameras.

Remodels

Did the remodel pay back, or just make the store look new?

What each remodel adds to the bottom line, how long it takes to pay back, and which parts of it paid.

EV chargers

Are the chargers adding retail sales, or just selling electricity?

The visits and sales the chargers added, with the read set up before they open.

Something else

A price change, a fuel rebrand or a delivery partner?

Tell us what changed, and we'll tell you what a read can show.

Every read works the same way

  • Each store that made the change gets a twin: a blend of your stores that didn't make the change, weighted so the twin matches the store's weekly sales for a year or more before the change.
  • After the change, the twin shows what the store would have sold had the change not been made. The twin went through the same weather, gas prices and local events, so the delta between the store and its twin isolates the effect of the change we want to read.
  • The read checks itself before you see it. The twin has to have tracked the store closely before the change. Placebo tests then rerun the read on a made-up start date, when nothing changed, and on stores that never made the change. Both should show no effect. If either shows an effect, the read isn't working properly, and we tell you.
  • Every store gets a result: the dollar impact, with a confidence interval and a verdict in plain words.

What every read gives you

  • A verdict for every store, with its confidence interval and the dollar impact.
  • The chain's result, and results by store type (e.g., highway, town, kitchen, no kitchen).
  • The checks the read passed, including statistical significance and placebo tests, so you know how sure to be.
  • What to do next, store by store: keep it, fix it or stop it.

What you send

  • One export your back office already runs: usually 1 to 2 years of weekly sales by store.
  • No systems to connect.
  • No names, no card numbers.

Know which change you need judged?

Tell us what changed, where and when. We'll come back on what a read can show.