Payoff Reads · Assortment and private label

Did our private label lift margin, and did new items grow the basket or just cannibalize existing items?

Find out what your private label adds to category margin, after the trade funding it gives up, and whether new and local items grow the basket or just cannibalize the rest of the shelf. Each store is read vs. a twin built from stores that haven't reset their shelves yet.

12 Pays for itself
5 No significant effect
3 Costs money

Heartland Markets is a fictional chain. Every number on this page is made up to show the format.

What your numbers can't show

Your category reports show what sold. They can't show which sales were new and which were cannibalized from the rest of the shelf.

What you have: weekly sales by category, and each item's share of those sales.
What it can't show: how much of your private label's sales were captured from the national brands beside it, and what that substitution did to your margin. Private label sells for less and earns more per item, so topline category sales can fall while margin rises. Category reports also can't show the trade funding you gave up when national brands lost facings, whether new and local items grew the basket or just replaced other purchases, or whether a cut item's shoppers switched to the items remaining on the shelf or stopped buying.
What the read shows: what your private label added to category margin at every store, after the national brand sales it captured and the trade funding you gave up, and whether new and local items grew the basket or just cannibalized the rest of the shelf.

In 2025, private label sold a record $282.8 billion across U.S. retail: 23.5% of the units sold, but 21.3% of the dollars, because each item sells for less (PLMA, from Circana data). That gap is why private label can lower a category's topline sales while raising its margin, and why a sales report can read a winning private label as a loss.

What lands on your desk

A private label launch, as Seurat reads it

Heartland Markets launched Heartland Select, its private label, in 3 categories (bottled water, salty snacks, and nuts and trail mix) at 20 of its 42 stores between April and July 2025, as each store's shelves were reset. Each reset store was read vs. a twin built from stores not yet reset, including the 22 still waiting to be reset.

The answer, in three lines:

Shoppers switched to the higher-margin label: Heartland Select took 18% of the units sold in the 3 categories, mostly from the national brands beside it, and units sold rose 3.5%.
It pays for itself: after the national brand sales it replaced and the trade funding given up, it adds $60 a week per store to the bottom line, and that's statistically significant, even though topline sales in the 3 categories fell $45 a week.
It doesn't pay in salty snacks. Chip buyers stick to their brand, and when national brand facings were reduced, some bought nothing.

per reset store, per week, in the 3 categories, vs. stores not yet reset

What changed	Result	Verdict
Units sold	+3.5%	Significant lift
Topline sales	−$45	No significant effect
Inside visits	+10	No significant effect
Margin on Heartland Select	+$290	Counted, not estimated
Margin on the national brand items it replaced	−$215	Significant drop
Trade funding given up: scan deals and display fees	−$15	Cost of the program
What Heartland Select adds to the bottom line	+$60	Pays for itself

Sales vs. the bottom line: Heartland Select sold $640 a week per store, and $685 of national brand sales went with it, so topline sales in the 3 categories fell $45 a week. Each Heartland Select sale keeps 45 cents of every dollar as margin, vs. 31 cents on the national brand it replaced, so the categories' margin rose.

Counted, not estimated: the twins sold no Heartland Select, so its margin needs no estimate. The estimate is what the national brands would have sold without it, and that's where the confidence band comes from.

By category: water and nuts pay. In salty snacks, Heartland Select chips took 2 of the 6 facings from the best-selling brand. Some of that brand's buyers couldn't find their size and bought nothing, so the brand lost more than Heartland Select won back.

by category, per reset store per week

Category	Heartland Select adds	Verdict
Bottled water	+$45	Pays for itself
Nuts and trail mix	+$30	Pays for itself
Salty snacks	−$15	Costs money

store by store (6 of 20)

Store	Reset	Heartland Select adds, per week	Verdict
Store 5, Collins Rd	Apr 2025	+$140	Pays for itself
Store 12, Ely Rd	Apr 2025	+$95	Pays for itself
Store 29, Market St	May 2025	+$35	No significant effect
Store 36, Westgate Dr	Jun 2025	+$10	No significant effect
Store 23, Hwy 6 E	Jun 2025	−$60	Costs money
Store 40, Hwy 151	Jul 2025	−$85	Costs money

By store type: Heartland Select pays at the 17 town stores, where regulars try it and come back for it. At the 3 highway stores, most shoppers are passing through and reach for brands they know.

by store type, per reset store per week

Store type	Heartland Select adds	Confidence band	Verdict
3 highway stores	−$70		Costs money
The other 17 reset stores	+$83		Pays for itself

The local shelf: in June 2025, 10 town stores added a shelf of 14 items from Iowa makers, like jerky, popcorn, salsa and coffee, priced about 40% above the national brands beside them. Local items sold, but mostly in place of other things in the same basket. Shoppers tend to arrive with a rough amount they plan to spend, so the $9 jerky replaced the chips and soda they'd usually buy, and the basket barely grew.

the local shelf, per store per week, vs. stores without it

What changed	Result	Verdict
Local item sales	+$310	Significant lift
Other items in the same baskets	−$240	Significant drop
Basket size	+$0.02	No significant effect
Margin, after the items they replaced	+$25	No significant effect

Cutting slow sellers: in September 2025, 14 stores cut 40 slow-selling candy and snack items, the bottom tenth by sales. Shoppers switched: 84% of the cut items' sales shifted to items remaining on the shelf, so candy and snack sales held, expired-product write-offs fell and the space is free for something that sells.

the 40 items cut, per store per week, vs. stores that kept them

What changed	Result	Verdict
Sales that shifted to items remaining on the shelf	+$270	Significant lift
Candy and snack sales	−$50	No significant effect
Expired-product write-offs	−$20	Significant drop
Candy and snack margin, after write-offs	+$4	No significant effect
Inside visits	−5	No significant effect

KeepFixStopWhat to do: keep Heartland Select in water and nuts, give salty snacks' facings back to the leading national brand, and leave the 3 highway stores out of the next wave. Keep the local shelf where it sells, but judge it on margin, since it doesn't grow the basket. The 40 cut items can stay off the shelf.

The confidence band shows the 95% confidence interval. When the band spans zero, the result isn't statistically significant. Heartland Markets is a fictional chain. Every number on this page is made up to show the format.

How the read works

Shelves usually get reset a few stores at a time, as a new planogram rolls out across the chain. That staggered rollout is what makes the read possible: the stores that haven't reset yet show what the reset stores would have sold with the old shelf.

Give each reset store a twin: a predicted line of weekly sales and units for each category, built from stores that haven't reset yet, weighted so it matches the store for a year or more before its reset.
Follow the switching. The read tracks every item in the category, not just the new ones, so the sales your private label captures from national brands count as a swap, not a gain.
Follow the whole basket. For new and local items, the read also tracks what else is in the basket, so a local item that replaces a shopper's usual chips counts as a swap too.
Count what you gave up. Scan deals, display fees and other trade funding tied to the facings that changed come off, along with any change in expired-product write-offs.
Put a price on it, and check it. Each item is valued at your margins. Each twin has to have tracked its store closely before the reset. A placebo test then reruns the read on a made-up reset date, months before any change. Because there's nothing to find during this period, it should show no effect. If it shows an effect, the read isn't working properly, and we tell you.

Can your assortment be read?

It depends on how the change reached your stores, more than on how many stores you run. There are 3 routes.

1
Your private label or new items went in store by store, as shelves were reset
How the read works
Each reset store vs. a twin built from stores that haven't reset yet
What it answers
What private label adds to category margin, and whether new items grow the basket or just cannibalize the rest of the shelf
2
Some stores cut items
How the read works
Stores that cut them vs. stores that kept them
What it answers
Whether shoppers switched to the items remaining on the shelf, or stopped buying
3
A new or local item went in at every store at once
How the read works
Each store vs. its own twin, built from its history and the categories the item shouldn't touch
What it answers
Whether the item grew the basket, or just took sales from items already in it

We check your reset dates and item history on the first call, before you commit to anything.

Scope this read

What we need, and what stays with you

We need:

Weekly sales and units by store and item, in the categories that changed
The date each store's shelf was reset, and which items went in or came out
Your margins by item or category, as percentages
Scan deals, display fees and other trade funding by category, if you track them
Expired-product write-offs by store and category
For new and local items, how many baskets they were in and those baskets' average total, by store and week, if your system reports it
Where your loyalty program can follow members, visits by member, with member IDs you've scrambled (hashed) yourself
1 to 2 years of history

We never ask for:

Names, phone numbers, emails or anything else that identifies a customer
Your supplier contracts
Your chain's totals or your P&L

How we handle your data →

How long it takes

About 2 weeks from the day your data lands, then a 60-minute readout with whoever needs to hear it.
We scope it to your chain on a short call: which categories, which resets, which items.

Scope this read Book a call

Questions buyers ask us

Our category sales fell after our private label went in. Did it fail? Not necessarily. Private label sells for less, so when shoppers substitute it for a national brand, topline category sales fall even as margin rises. The read reports both, and judges the label on margin, after the trade funding you gave up.
Can you tell which items to cut? Where items came off the shelf at different stores or different times, the read shows whether their shoppers shifted their purchases to items remaining on the shelf or stopped buying. Where nothing has been cut yet, we can point to the items whose buyers also buy close substitutes, where a cut is safest, and read the cut once it runs at some stores.
Our suppliers pay for placement. Does that change the answer? Often. Private label usually takes facings from national brands that came with scan deals and display fees. The read takes off what you gave up, so the margin it reports is the margin you kept.
What about local items? They're a different question. Local items usually cost more than the national brands beside them, and shoppers tend to arrive with a rough amount they plan to spend, so a local item can crowd out other things in the basket instead of adding to it. The read follows the whole basket, not just the shelf, so it shows whether local items grow the basket or just change what's in it.
What if the read shows the change doesn't pay? A read with no significant lift is a private finding. You see every result first, and nothing goes anywhere without your approval.
Do we have to connect any systems? No. One export from your back-office system, sent however your IT team prefers.
Who does the work? We do. Your team runs the export, shares it with us, and comes back to hear our readout.

After this read

Read several changes in one request, or keep each category measured week by week.

Scope several changes →How monitoring works →

Sources: PLMA, "U.S. Private Label Industry Reached $282.8 Billion in Sales in 2025," January 2026, from Circana data.