Causal inference analytics for multi-site retail
Find out which of your changes paid off, store by store.
Your current reports show what each store sold. A read shows how one change contributed to those sales — whether it's your loyalty program, a deal, a food program, new items, staffing or a remodel. We do this by comparing each store to a twin built from your own stores that didn't make the change.
The big chains build digital twins with cameras and sensors. Seurat builds a twin of every store from the sales data you already have.
Payoff Reads
Is our loyalty program paying for itself, or subsidizing likely buyers?
What the program actually adds to the bottom line after its discounts, store by store and offer by offer.
Did the deal make money, or just move units?
At which stores each deal made money, and at which it lost money, after the discount.
Is our food program winning repeat visits and bigger baskets, or just adding cost?
What the food program contributes at every store after food costs, waste and labor, and whether it builds repeat visits and bigger baskets.
Did our private label lift margin, and did new items grow the basket or just cannibalize existing items?
What your private label adds to category margin, and whether new and local items grow the basket or only cannibalize the items already on the shelf.
Did self-checkout pay for itself, and where would it pay to add more self-checkout units?
Labor, rush-hour sales, basket size and shrink, read together at every store that installed it, to give you a complete view of self-checkout's contribution.
Did the extra staff and the pay raise earn back their cost through more sales at peak hours?
What added staff and pay changes earn back at every store: in sales at peak hours, in customers who come back more often, and in fewer employees quitting and less overtime.
Did cameras change customer and employee behavior?
To what extent camera presence drove fewer incidents, vs. similar stores without cameras.
Did the remodel pay back, or just make the store look new?
What each remodel adds to the bottom line, how long it takes to pay back, and which parts of it paid.
Are the chargers adding retail sales, or just selling electricity?
The visits and sales the chargers added, with the read set up before they open.
A price change, a fuel rebrand or a delivery partner?
Tell us what changed, and we'll tell you what a read can show.
Both stores are illustrations.
Every read works the same way
A 75-second silent film that loops. It opens on $2.9 million a year in added inside sales for a 42-store chain, about what a 43rd store would sell, without building one. Causal inference gives every store a twin, blended from the chain's other stores, and each twin shows what a store is capable of selling and how it should perform. Causal inference also isolates and ranks what's helping and hurting sales at each store. Store 27 is up 4% on last year, but only its new pizza launch helped, adding $2,600 a week, while a new competitor nearby, a snack aisle reset and an energy drink deal cost it $900, $400 and $150 a week, compared to its expected performance, based on its twin's prediction. The film then starts with the chain's PDI weekly sales report, as forwarded, and asks whether anything stands out. Stores 13 and 14 are both down 2% on last year. Twin analysis flags Store 14: other stores like it grew 2%, and its twin predicted +1.8%, not a decline. Once that marked-up report is back, the 3 weekly reports the chain sent are deleted, on its request or on its scheduled date, and the marked-up report stays with the chain. Starting at the pump, Store 14's fuel sales held up vs. its twin, but fewer drivers came into the store: pump-to-store conversion is 2% lower, inside sales are 4% lower, or $3,550 a week, prepared food is 17% lower and drinks and snacks are 6% lower. Prepared food fell particularly fast at Store 14 from Aug 3, compared to the twin's prediction and the trend at the chain's other stores. Seurat asks the store whether anything might explain the drop, and the store manager says they never rolled out staff sandwich training there. The problem was detected by comparing category-level sales to the twin's predicted sales. A dashboard of all 42 stores then shows this was 1 of 32 findings and opportunities, worth $2.9 million a year together: launching the burrito at 18 more stores, $554,000; moving warmers next to the register, $352,000; retraining Store 14's lunch crew, $185,000; a win-back offer near competitors, $160,000; ending the energy drink deal, $125,000; and 27 more findings, $1.5 million. Throughout, a Data used strip shows which of 4 steps each scene's data comes from, with what that step includes and leaves out, and says nothing connects to the chain's systems. The end card says to get started with the weekly report you already have, and lists what Seurat uses, what to leave out and what happens to it.
After the first read
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