Which sites should we fix, which should we sell, and which are worth buying?
Find out what each site should sell given what it can't change quickly — like its traffic, its trade area and its competition — and how far its current sales are from its potential.
Fix: a weak site selling below its potential has a problem you can fix.
Sell: a weak site already at its full potential can't be fixed, because its location holds it back.
Buy: the same model, run on a site you might buy, shows how much more it could sell, and in which categories.
9 Fix: room to grow
27 Keep
6 Sell candidates
Heartland Markets is a fictional chain. Every number on this page is made up to show the format.
What your numbers can't show
Your reports rank sites by what they sell. They can't show what each site is capable of selling.
What you have: sales, margin and gallons by site, and a ranking that puts the weakest sites at the bottom.
What it can't show: why a site sits at the bottom. A site on a quiet road can trail the chain and still be well run, and a site on a busy corner can beat the chain and still leave money on the table. A ranking by sales mostly sorts sites by location, so the sites you'd sell first can be the ones a new owner could turn around.
What the read shows: what each site should sell given its traffic, trade area, competition, format and fuel positions; how far it is from its true sales potential; what closing that gap is worth; and, for a site you might buy, the same numbers from the seller's POS sales data.
From our national survey
79%of shoppers say the same chain is noticeably better or worse from store to store.
Worse because of how it's run? It can be fixed, and selling it hands that upside to the buyer.
Worse because of where it sits? It can't be fixed, and that's the store to sell.
What lands on your desk
A chain's sites, as Seurat reads them
Heartland Markets wanted to know which of its 42 stores to keep, fix or sell, and whether to buy a 6-store chain across the river. For each store, the read estimated what a typical site facing the same conditions sells. The difference between that and what the store actually sells is its room to grow. The read then checked how much room Heartland's own past changes had closed at similar stores: the pizza launches, the 2nd morning employee and the 9 remodels.
The answer, in three lines:
9 stores sell well below what their locations could support, $1.4 million a year in all. Most of the shortfall is in food and in the morning rush, which Heartland's own pizza launches and staffing changes have closed at similar stores.
6 stores already sell close to their full potential, and each is the weakest in its district. Nothing Heartland has tried lifted stores like them. They're the candidates to sell, and 2 of them face a new competitor next year.
The 6-store chain for sale sells $780,000 a year less than its sites could support, almost all of it at 3 sites and in food. At similar Heartland stores, the pizza program closed about half of a shortfall like that: about $140,000 a year at the bottom line across the 6.
store by store (8 of 42), per year, vs. what a typical site facing the same conditions sells
Store
Sales a year
Room to grow, a year
Confidence band
Verdict
Store 9, Boyson Rd
$1.4M
+$240,000
Confidence band: +$150,000 to +$330,000
Fix
Store 27, Pine St
$1.3M
+$210,000
Confidence band: +$120,000 to +$300,000
Fix
Store 22, Mount Vernon Rd
$1.5M
+$170,000
Confidence band: +$80,000 to +$260,000
Fix
Store 18, C Ave
$1.9M
+$30,000
Confidence band: −$60,000 to +$120,000
Keep
Store 33, Kennedy Pkwy
$2.4M
−$20,000
Confidence band: −$110,000 to +$70,000
Keep
Store 14, Old Mill Rd
$0.9M
+$10,000
Confidence band: −$60,000 to +$80,000
Sell candidate
Store 29, Ridge Rd
$0.8M
−$15,000
Confidence band: −$90,000 to +$60,000
Sell candidate
Store 35, Front St
$1.0M
+$5,000
Confidence band: −$70,000 to +$80,000
Sell candidate
Room to grow vs. the bottom line: the 9 fix stores sell $1.4 million a year less than their locations could support. Heartland's own changes closed about half of a shortfall like that at similar stores, so fixing them is worth about $700,000 a year in sales and about $250,000 at the bottom line.
Where the shortfall is: at the 9 fix stores, it's in food and in the morning rush, the 2 things Heartland's pizza launches and 2nd morning employee already fixed at similar stores. A remodel wouldn't reach it: Heartland's remodel read found the new look added nothing you can measure.
The 6 sell candidates: each sells close to its full potential and is the weakest store in its district. Pizza, app ordering and the 2nd morning employee each added nothing measurable at stores with this little traffic. 2 of the 6 will have a new competitor within a mile next year, and at similar Heartland stores, a new competitor that close cost 7% of inside sales in its first year.
the 6-store chain for sale, per site per year, from the seller's 2 years of POS sales
Site
Seller's sales a year
Room to grow, a year
Confidence band
Verdict
Site 1, Riverside Dr
$1.3M
+$310,000
Confidence band: +$190,000 to +$430,000
Room to grow
Site 2, Mill St
$1.1M
+$240,000
Confidence band: +$120,000 to +$360,000
Room to grow
Site 3, Route 9
$1.5M
+$160,000
Confidence band: +$40,000 to +$280,000
Room to grow
Site 4, Elm St
$0.9M
+$60,000
Confidence band: −$60,000 to +$180,000
No significant gap
Site 5, Depot Rd
$1.2M
+$20,000
Confidence band: −$100,000 to +$140,000
No significant gap
Site 6, Lake Ave
$0.8M
−$10,000
Confidence band: −$120,000 to +$100,000
No significant gap
All 6 sites
$6.8M
+$780,000
Confidence band: +$480,000 to +$1,080,000
Room to grow
Before you buy: the read works from the seller's POS sales by site and week, the numbers buyers usually get in the data room. It doesn't value the real estate, check the fuel supply contract or set the price. It tells you how much room the sites have to grow, and which of your own programs could capture it.
KeepFixStopWhat to do: fix the 9 stores with room to grow, starting with food and the morning rush. Keep the 27 that sell close to their full potential. Put the 6 sell candidates in front of buyers, starting with the 2 facing a new competitor. If Heartland buys the 6-store chain, launch pizza first at the 3 sites with room to grow.
The confidence band shows the 95% confidence interval. When the band spans zero, the result isn't statistically significant. Heartland Markets is a fictional chain. Every number on this page is made up to show the format.
How the read works
A site's sales depend on 2 things: where it sits, and how it's run. The read separates them with the same model that powers the Remodel Sequence Read, then compares each site's room to grow with what your own past changes have recovered.
Model what each site should sell. We estimate what a typical site sells given what it can't change quickly: trade area population and income, traffic count, road type, competition nearby, store size and format, and fuel positions. The difference between that and the site's actual sales is its room to grow.
Compare each site's room to grow with what fixes could recover. Room to grow only counts if something has closed a shortfall like it before. Your own past changes, like remodels, food launches and staffing changes, each read vs. a twin, show how much of a shortfall each kind of fix recovered at similar sites. If nothing ever has, the shortfall may sit in something the model can't see, like road access or visibility, and we say so.
Read competitor openings like any other change. Each time a competitor opened near one of your stores, the read measures what the competitor's presence cost that store vs. its twin. That shows which kinds of sites lose the most, and, with competitor builds already announced, which of your sites are about to get weaker.
Run the same model on a site you might buy. We put in the target's conditions and compare what its sites should sell with the seller's POS sales, site by site.
Evaluate what it's worth, then test the model. Each site's room to grow is valued at your margins, with a range. Before we use the model on your sites, it has to predict the sales of sites it hasn't seen. If it can't, the read isn't working properly, and we tell you.
What it doesn't do: value real estate, check environmental or fuel supply terms, or set a price. It also doesn't pick locations for new stores. It's for sites that are already open, yours or a seller's.
Can your sites be read?
It depends on your question and on the history you have. There are 3 routes.
1
Sites you might fix or sell
How the read works
Each site's sales vs. what its location could support, and how much of a shortfall like it your past changes, like remodels or food launches, closed at similar sites
What it answers
Which sites have room to grow, which are held back by their location, and what closing each site's shortfall is worth
2
A site or chain you might buy
How the read works
The same model on the target's sites, compared with the seller's POS sales
What it answers
How much room the sites have to grow, and which of your programs could capture it
3
A competitor opening near your stores
How the read works
Each store near the new competitor vs. a twin built from stores without a new competitor nearby
What it answers
What the competitor's presence cost, and which of your sites are most exposed to the next competitor
We bring the traffic counts, trade area data and competitor locations from public sources, and we check your history on the first call, before you commit to anything.
Isn't a weak site just a weak site? Not always. A site can trail the chain because of where it sits or because of how it's run, and those 2 causes call for opposite decisions. Selling a site with room to grow hands the upside to the buyer. Fixing a site held back by its location spends money it won't earn back.
How is this different from the Remodel Sequence Read? They use the same model. The Remodel Sequence Read takes your capital plan and tells you which sites to remodel first. This read asks which sites belong in the chain at all, and what a site you might buy could sell under your brand banner.
We bought most of our stores and relabeled them. Can you read what our rebuilds did? Yes, where you rebuilt some sites and not others: each rebuild is read vs. a twin, the way a remodel is. That shows what each level of investment returned. For a site relabeled the day you bought it, the read needs the seller's POS sales from before the purchase, if you kept them.
Can you tell us where to build a new store? No. Picking locations for new stores takes foot traffic and real estate data, and that's what site selection firms do. This read is for sites that are already open, yours or a seller's.
Can we trust a seller's numbers? The read checks them for obvious problems, like missing weeks or sales that don't line up with gallons, but it can't audit them. That's a job for the data room.
What if the read disagrees with our plan? A read is a private finding. You see every result first, and nothing goes anywhere without your approval.
Who does the work? We do. Your team runs the export, shares it with us, and comes back to hear our readout.
After this read
Every read shows where a change worked and where it didn't, so it naturally raises the next question: why? The next read usually runs on the same export you've already sent.
Reads cost less in sets of 3, and your first read will be credited toward a multi-read discount.
